기후변화 시나리오(해수면 상승)를 고려한 해일 침수범람 취약성 평가 연구, Fine-resolution Numerical Simulations to Estimate Storm Surge Height and Inundation Vulnerability Considering Future Climate Change Scenario

Abstract

○ 정밀격자 폭풍해일 예측 모델 시스템 구축 ○ IPCC AR5(2014) 시나리오 분석을 통한 미래 한반도 해수면상승 가능범위 분석 ○ 국내 주요 연안 도시에 대한 과거 해일피해 사례 분석 ○ 해수면 상승 시나리오와 슈퍼 태풍 복합 작용시의 최대 가능 침수범람 범위 추정

Yoon, J.J., 2018. Fine-resolution Numerical Simulations to Estimate Storm Surge Height and Inundation Vulnerability Considering Future Climate Change Scenario. In: Shim, J.-S.

Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 916–920. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Typhoons are significant natural disasters in Korea, causing considerable damage to property. Climate change worsens the situation. The most severe loss of life and property in Korea was caused by Typhoon Maemi in September 2003. When storm surges coincide with high tides, they cause even greater damage. Therefore, it is desirable to accurately forecast storm surges, to enable detailed evacuation planning, including hazard mapping. To estimate the maximum probable inundation area while planning a hazard map, it is necessary to consider future climate change scenarios. The simulation of the largest storm surge inundation was successfully carried out with the Typhoon Maemi scenario using the Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). According to the recent IPCC AR5 report, the rate of sea level rise (SLR) could accelerate to 1.4–2.0 m by the end of the 21st century. This estimate should be considered when designing coastal structures in order to prevent coastal disasters. We applied the results of SLR to coastal inundation simulations. We considered the effects of additional future SLR on the traditional storm surge inundation simulation of Typhoon Maemi. Virtual scenarios with additional SLR were simulated to evaluate the maximum probable surge height, and inundation depth and area for each climate change scenario along the southern coast of Korea. The increase in inundation heights and areas at the regional scale was found to be approximately 67–70% and 414–527%, respectively. This study provides a method to determine the maximum probable inundation area due to surge wave propagation.